trade war: but why?!
A trade war, especially one as unpredictable and aggressive as the kind President Donald Trump has championed, carries significant economic risks for the average American. While tariffs and economic brinkmanship might be framed as efforts to protect American jobs and industries, history shows that such policies often backfire, leading to higher consumer prices, job losses, and market instability. The troubling reality is that for Trump and other ultra-wealthy figures like Elon Musk, the economic fallout of a trade war would be little more than an inconvenience. Their personal wealth insulates them from the consequences that middle-class Americans would bear. This reality raises an important question: if Trump is not personally affected by the potential damage of his policies, what motivation does he have to avoid harming the economy? The answer is troubling—his primary concern has always been self-promotion and personal legacy, rather than the well-being of the middle-class voters who supported him.
The Billionaire Perspective: Insulated from Economic Downturns
Trump and Musk both exist in a financial stratosphere where economic downturns do not threaten their day-to-day lives. If tariffs drive up the price of goods, Musk and Trump will not struggle to afford groceries or pay rent. If job losses mount due to retaliatory tariffs from foreign nations, they will not be among those laid off. Their wealth not only shields them from economic hardships but also allows them to profit from volatility. Musk, for example, has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to manipulate markets, particularly through cryptocurrency investments, and Trump has long profited from the chaos he sows, leveraging controversy into brand expansion.
For Trump, trade wars are not about sound economic strategy but about appearing “tough” on foreign nations, particularly China. His 2018-2019 trade war against China imposed billions in costs on American businesses and consumers while failing to bring back manufacturing jobs in any meaningful way. Farmers, a key part of his voter base, suffered immense losses due to Chinese retaliatory tariffs, forcing the government to spend tens of billions on bailout programs to keep them afloat. Yet, while working-class Americans paid the price, Trump personally remained unaffected. His businesses continued to operate, and he used the trade war as a campaign talking point rather than a policy challenge requiring careful navigation.
The Middle Class: The Real Losers in a Trade War
The American middle class is always the first group to feel the effects of economic instability. Tariffs raise prices on consumer goods, making everything from electronics to household staples more expensive. Businesses that rely on imported materials face higher costs, leading to layoffs and wage stagnation. Retaliatory tariffs by other countries often target industries that employ large numbers of middle-class workers, such as agriculture and manufacturing. In essence, a trade war functions as a hidden tax on the very people who can least afford it.
Despite his claims of being a champion for the “forgotten men and women” of America, Trump has repeatedly prioritized his own ego over sound economic policy. His trade war with China demonstrated an unwillingness to admit miscalculations, even as American industries suffered. Unlike previous leaders who sought diplomatic solutions to trade disputes, Trump took a scorched-earth approach, unwilling to compromise because doing so might appear weak.
The Inevitable Betrayal
Trump’s political brand relies on presenting himself as a fighter for the common man, yet time and again, his policies have disproportionately harmed middle-class Americans while leaving the wealthy untouched. His tax cuts primarily benefited the richest Americans, his pandemic response left millions struggling while billionaires thrived, and his economic policies, including trade wars, have consistently prioritized optics over outcomes.
If reelected, Trump has already signaled that he would escalate trade wars, potentially imposing new tariffs that could drive up prices even further. Given his history, there is little reason to believe he would change course if these policies once again harmed middle-class Americans. Just as before, he would deflect blame, shift responsibility, and double down on his decisions—all while remaining personally insulated from the consequences.
Conclusion
For billionaires like Donald Trump and Elon Musk, economic downturns are temporary inconveniences, not existential threats. Trade wars, which could devastate middle-class Americans, serve as little more than political theater or financial opportunities for the ultra-rich. Trump’s history shows that he is willing to abandon the very voters who propelled him into office if it serves his ego or personal interests. As the 2024 election looms, voters must ask themselves: can they afford another term of economic policies designed not to protect them, but to satisfy Trump’s desire for power and control?